Planning & Progress Study 2023

Two-thirds (67%) of U.S. adults expect the economy will enter into recession later this year – a key finding from Northwestern Mutual’s newly released 2023 Planning & Progress Study exploring Americans’ attitudes and behaviors toward their finances.

For those who see a recession looming, one-third (33%) say it will be short-lived, lasting a year or less, while one-fifth (19%) say it will last more than two years. And among those anticipating a recession, three out of four expect it to have a high or moderate impact on both their near-term (78%) and longer-term (75%) finances.

According to the research, most Americans are responding to economic uncertainty with action, making adjustments – small and large – to their financial priorities and choices.

Cutting costs tops list of measures being taken to address economic uncertainty

The top three steps people are taking include cutting costs (64%), building up savings (50%), and postponing large expenses until the economy is on more stable footing (41%). Even high-net-worth individuals – those with total household investable assets greater than $1 million – are building up savings (50%) and postponing large expenses (38%).

Personal savings are up… but not quite as high as inflation

This year’s study finds that, on average, Americans’ personal savings (excluding retirement assets) stand at $65,100 – a nearly 5% increase over the $62,000 reported last year, but short of the 6.5% inflation rate the U.S. economy saw in 2022.

Meanwhile, despite the Federal Reserve’s campaign to fight inflation by raising interest rates, more than half (54%) of Americans say they expect inflation to increase further this year versus 19% who say it will decrease and 27% who say it will stay the same.

Inflation and recession are top financial concerns for most people

Not surprisingly, inflation (51%) and recession (26%) came in as people’s top financial concerns this year. Interestingly, coming in at #3 is an issue that has receded somewhat from the news cycle – gas prices (24%).

Gen Z agrees that inflation (38%) is the top financial concern. More than six in 10 (61%) of America’s youngest adults believe inflation will increase this year, with only 15% saying it will decrease. However, they say their next greatest financial worries are gas prices (26%), climate change (22%) and job stability (21%).

Uncertainty impacts younger people differently than older

Economic uncertainty is leading the majority of Americans (60%) to postpone plans and purchases of one kind or another. More than a third (36%) of people say they are postponing daily purchases like meals out, new clothes and event tickets. Three in 10 (29%) say they are shelving large purchases or projects like remodeling a home or buying a new car. For younger adults, the postponements also include putting some big life decisions on pause.

Planning and risk

There is an exact 50/50 split between how people approach financial planning in America. Half of U.S. adults say they are disciplined, with 20% identifying as highly disciplined planners and 30% as disciplined. The other half identify as undisciplined, with 36% saying their planning is informal and 15% saying they don’t plan at all.

The good news is that a large majority (70%) of Americans say they have clarity on exactly how much they can spend now versus save for later. The number jumps to 83% for those who work with a financial advisor. About six in seven (86%) of those who identify as disciplined or highly disciplined planners feel this same financial confidence.

When it comes to risk, 63% of Americans say they’re very or somewhat tolerant of financial risk in their investments. Interestingly, comfort with risk goes up for people who work with advisors (71%), those who consider themselves disciplined or highly disciplined planners (72%) and high-net-worth individuals (79%).

The study found that just over half (52%) of U.S. adults say they have a financial plan that factors for up and down economic cycles over time. That compares to 84% of high-net-worth individuals who say the same, and 79% for those who work with an advisor.

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - The Financial States of America 

Americans believe they will need $1.27 million to retire comfortably. That number continues to increase, up from $1.25 million reported last year.

Meanwhile, the average amount that U.S. adults have saved for retirement modestly increased by 3% to $89,300 from $86,869 in 2022.

Among age groups, people in their 50s expect to need the most for a comfortable retirement – over $1.5 million. The numbers drop considerably for people in their 60s and 70s, largely because many of them are already in retirement.

High-net-worth individuals – those with more than $1 million in investable assets – believe they’ll need $3 million to retire comfortably.

Retirement readiness and work timelines

Among generations, Gen Z is the most confident they’ll be financially prepared for retirement when the time comes. Older generations are more pessimistic – more than half of Gen X say they won’t be ready, and nearly half of Millennials and Boomers+ (not yet retired) say the same.

These retirement readiness feelings impact how long people expect to work. Boomers+ plan to work the longest (71) while Gen Z expects to retire more than a decade earlier (60). Millennials and Gen Xers plan to work to age 63 and 65, respectively.

Overall, Americans on average plan to work until the age of 65, up from 64 last year and 62.6 in 2021.

Interestingly, the study found that people who identify as disciplined financial planners knock off two years on their retirement age (63). Informal / non-planners add two years (67).

Imagining retirement… but worried about outliving savings

The study explored what Americans are most looking forward to about retirement, as well as their greatest concerns. People are most looking forward to:

• Relaxing (55%)
• Getting family time (51%)
• Traveling (48%)

These have much greater appeal than things like volunteering (17%), a second career (13%), and doing something entrepreneurial (11%). 

People are most concerned about:

• Declining health (44%)
• Outliving savings (43%)
• Boredom (31%)

Very few people said they were concerned about missing their career (16%). 

On average, Americans say there is a 45% chance they outlive their savings and yet one third (33%) haven’t taken any steps to address it. For people who work with an advisor, the story is different – nine of out ten (89%) have taken steps to address the possibility of outliving their savings.

Living to 100

The study found three in ten (28%) Americans think it's likely they'll live to a 100. But expectations are much greater among younger adults, with 40% of Gen Z and Millennials expecting to hit triple digits.

Interestingly, more men (31%) than women (26%) think they’re likely to live to 100 when in fact mortality data suggests the opposite is true. Among centenarians in the United States today, 85% are women.

Social Insecurity

More than four in ten Americans (42%) can imagine a time when Social Security no longer exists, according to the research.

And yet, people are relying on Social Security to provide 28% of their overall retirement funding. That’s more than personal savings (22%) and equal to retirement savings (28%).

Gen Z and Millennials have tempered expectations – they anticipate Social Security to deliver 15% and 19% of their overall retirement funding respectively. That’s a significant drop from what Boomers+ say – 38%.

In forthcoming data sets, the 2023 Planning & Progress Study will explore wide-ranging issues facing Americans spanning debt, planning, wellness and more.

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - Work & Retirement

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The average American’s personal debt exclusive of mortgages is $21,800, which is $8,000 less than what people reported in 2019. But underneath that topline number is a second story, about two very different experiences with debt. More than a third (35%) of Americans say they’re carrying close to or at their highest level of debt ever. At the same time, more than four in ten (43%) U.S. adults who have personal debt say they’re currently carrying close to or at their lowest level of debt ever. 

The primary source of personal debt in America can be found right in people’s wallets. According to the study, credit cards account for more than double any other single source of personal debt. 

People who carry personal debt say 30% of their monthly income goes toward paying it off, and most also expect to remain in debt for years.

Discovering a Debt Divide

The research finds that more than four in 10 (43%) U.S. adults who have personal debt say they’re currently carrying close to or at their lowest level of debt ever. At the same time, more than a third (35%) say they’re carrying close to or at their highest level of debt ever.

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With respect to priorities, the research found that most people’s instincts are to get out of debt before building savings. Sixty-one percent say they prioritize paying down debt versus 39% who put saving first. 

Student Loans Weigh Heavily on Gen Z and Millennials

The study results indicate that student debt still weighs heavily on younger generations. Overall, 5% of survey participants cited personal education loans as their top source of debt. For Gen Z, it’s more than triple that (17%) and for Millennials it’s double (10%). 

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - Debt

Americans say their financial planning needs improvement and that having a financial advisor boosts confidence, yet only 37% work with one.

The data finds that two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe their financial planning needs improvement, a 4 percentage-point uptick from the previous year. This was especially true among younger adults (79% for both Gen Z and Millennials, up 5 percentage points from last year for each generation). One factor driving this could be the current economic landscape. Nearly one in five people (18%) say that recent economic uncertainty has led them to either begin working with a financial advisor or plan to work with one at a later date.

Financial advisors boost confidence

The research shows that people who work with an advisor have significantly higher levels of confidence across a range of areas, including being prepared for unplanned expenses (31 percentage points higher), being able to retire when the time comes (29 percentage points higher) and achieving long-term financial security (28 percentage points higher).

Advisors are considered the most trusted source for financial advice

Americans say that financial advisors are the most trusted source of financial advice, outpacing spouses, family members, business news, friends and social media.

While Gen Z and Millennials may spend a significant amount of time on social networks, the vast majority are not turning to those channels for trustworthy financial guidance. Both groups ranked financial advisors among the most trusted sources of financial advice – #1 for Millennials and #2 for Gen Z, second only to family members.

Older Americans want an advisor with expertise, while younger generations prioritize advisors who align to their values, save them time, and keep them up-to-date

The data finds two leading reasons people turn to advisors for financial guidance: for their professional expertise and to help them maintain a long-term view that keeps them on track to achieve goals (both at 48%). Interestingly, Gen Z and Millennials were more likely than other generations to turn to an advisor for help aligning their finances with their values, saving time and keeping up to date on things like changes to the tax code.

Additionally, when selecting an advisor to work with, respondents said they prioritize someone who understands their life stage priorities (54%) and who has a long track record of experience (51%). When looking across generations, however, priorities begin to differ. Gen Z and Millennials, for example, place a higher premium on working with an advisor who is tech-forward and demographically similar to them.

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - Advisors

Americans feel significantly more confident in areas of their lives outside of their finances and more than a third (36%) say financial uncertainty keeps them up at night at least monthly. 

When asked to rate how strong they feel about the current state of various areas of their lives, eight in ten U.S. adults (79%) say they feel strong or very strong about their friendships; three-quarters say the same about their mental health (75%) and physical health (74%); and seven in ten (69%) say the same about their job stability. However, only slightly more than half of people (57%) say they feel strong or very strong about the current state of their finances, a relative weakness compared to other parts of life.   

The Arc of Anxiety

The study found that financial anxiety tends to follow an arc as people move through life. In general, financial uncertainty is elevated for Gen Z, peaks for Millennials, begins to recede for Gen X and sits at its lowest levels for Boomers+. For example, more than a third (36%) of Americans say uncertainty about their finances keeps them up at night at least once a month. That number is even higher for Gen Z (44%) and is highest among Millennials (53%). 

Financial uncertainty causes the following issues across generations at least once a month:

Planning for financial wellness

Results from the study indicate that those who work with a financial advisor and those who identify as disciplined financial planners are more likely to report greater feelings of strength about the current state of various aspects of their lives, both personal and professional.

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - Wellness

Wealthy Americans don’t sit back and assume they have nothing to be concerned about financially.

U.S. adults aged 18+ with more than $1 million in investable assets are active, disciplined long-term planners who take very little for granted: nearly half (47%) say their financial planning still needs improvement, and a third (33%) think it’s possible they could outlive their savings. The study finds 84% of wealthy people say they have a long-term financial plan that factors for up and down economic cycles. That compares to 52% who say the same among the general population.

When it comes to financial planning, wealthy Americans demonstrate high levels of discipline in comparison to the general population.

Wealthy Americans trust financial advisors

The study finds seven out of ten (70%) wealthy Americans work with a financial advisor, nearly double the amount of the general population (37%).

Over half (53%) of wealthy people consider advisors to be their most trusted source of financial advice – that’s more than four times any other source. Spouses/partners ranked a distant second at 11%, followed by business news at 10%.

Recent economic uncertainty has led to a re-evaluation among some wealthy Americans. Nearly half (48%) of wealthy people who work with an advisor said that, if they were seeking a change, they would select another advisor who could offer more comprehensive financial guidance than their current advisor. One-third (34%) would switch to someone who has a better understanding of their life stage and priorities.

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Read the 2023 Planning and Progress Study - High Net Worth